Ensuring a Safe, Secure, and Dignified Future for Displaced Syrians

After nearly 14 years of brutal war, marked by mass atrocities and widespread displacement, the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad signals the end of a regime responsible for incalculable suffering. Assad’s leaves behind a legacy of mass displacement, arrests, torture, forced disappearances, and the murder of countless Syrian civilians. Assad’s departure creates an opening, finally, for a better future for Syrians – but achieving this will entail navigating a period of major political, economic, and humanitarian challenges. 

Since November 28, over 1 million Syrians have been displaced. Syria’s economy and infrastructure lie in ruins, with fragmented governance and enormous reconstruction and early recovery needs. Food insecurity, widespread poverty, and public health crises persist, exacerbated by limited access to clean water and a badly damaged health sector. Displacement risks remain high, with fighting between Turkish-backed militias and U.S.-backed Kurdish militias growing in the northeast. Meanwhile, ISIS militants will seek to exploit the current vacuum to expand operations. Ongoing airstrikes and Israeli military incursions add to the instability. These challenges are compounded by uncertainty over the future of the Syrian state and its composition in the coming weeks and months.

The fall of Assad’s regime has been met with jubilation among many Syrian refugees, a few of whom have begun rushing home from neighboring countries to reconnect with loved ones and gauge whether to permanently return. However, the prospects for the more than 6 million Syrian refugees and over 7 million internally displaced Syrians remain uncertain. Many do aspire to return to their homes and rebuild their lives in Syria – but the prospects for large scale return remain unclear. Mass refugee repatriation will be a slow and delicate process, contingent on factors including restoration of legitimate and effective governance, security conditions, an effective recovery and reconstruction effort, resolving complex housing and property rights disputes, and substantial humanitarian investments. None of this will materialize quickly, and refugee-hosting governments should expect repatriation to proceed gradually as sustainable conditions for safe return begin to emerge within Syria. Moves by some European governments to halt asylum processing for Syrians are ill-advised and should be reversed until political and security conditions stabilize.

Meanwhile, Syria remains in the grips of a major humanitarian crisis. All of the humanitarian needs that existed just three weeks ago are still present in post-Assad Syria. What has changed now is that humanitarians have the access to begin addressing these needs, albeit for an unknown window of time. In that window, it is critical that the humanitarian response rapidly scales to surge in aid and capitalize on the current window of opportunity. 

Building a Humanitarian Architecture

Syria will be dependent on humanitarian aid for the near future. However, the current levels of instability have limited the capacity of UN and aid agencies to mobilize and scale a unified nationwide response from Damascus. The country remains split between zones of military control under competing factions, which continues to complicate the coordination and delivery of aid across zones. The potential for a return to conflict, or a deterioration of conditions and ongoing displacement, remain high. It is critical to capitalize on the immediate window of expanded humanitarian access to ramp up a major surge in humanitarian relief activity.

In the immediate term, the longstanding Whole of Syria mechanism remains the most viable humanitarian framework for ensuring that aid reaches all parts of Syria. This aid mechanism enables the UN to effectively reach throughout the country by maintaining critical offices in Türkiye, Jordan, and Iraq to coordinate and manage cross-border aid and service delivery. This model has proven to be functional and scalable and has operated effectively for over a decade during the civil war. It is also adaptable if there is a return to violence, where cross-border assistance would play a pivotal role. Key hubs in Amman and Gaziantep currently have the infrastructure and capacity to facilitate large-scale cross-border operations and ensure essential aid reaches those in need.

UN Damascus would play a critical coordination role within the Whole of Syria framework but is not sufficiently equipped to fully manage a nationwide response in the immediate term. Furthermore, there is little trust between Syrian aid groups and the UN in Damascus, as the latter has long been seen by Syrian civil society as too cozy with the former Assad regime. The UN should consider a leadership reset in the Damascus operation in order to establish a fresh start with the emerging leadership of the country. 

Jordanian and Turkish markets are well-positioned to support cross-border aid into Syria, offering a reliable supply chain for food, fuel, and medical supplies. This approach also allows UN agencies in neighboring refugee-hosting countries to monitor the return intentions of refugees and use this data to direct assistance to communities, supporting reintegration efforts and minimizing disruptions.

To ensure success, this architecture must integrate robust local leadership from local Syrian-led NGOs, which have the best access to communities on the ground. Enhanced coordination between international actors, neighboring countries, and local organizations will be critical to maintaining effective aid delivery and addressing specific localized needs.

Recommendations

As Syria transitions to a post-Assad period, urgent actions are required to safeguard the survival and well-being of the Syrian people. 

Refugees International calls on all military actors and their international backers to:

Cease Military Operations and Protect Civilians, Especially Minorities 

All warring actors must cease military operations and protect civilians in the aftermath of the conflict. The provocation of conflict in Northern Syria by Turkish-backed opposition forces against the Kurdish-dominated regions of Manbij and Kobani continues to threaten further displacement and civilian harm. The protection of all civilians is of paramount importance. During this period of uncertainty, all parties must adhere to International Humanitarian Law and ensure the protection of all Syrians, regardless of their ethnicity, religion, tribe, or political affiliation. This includes ensuring equal access to aid and services, ensuring a country free of harassment by military forces, and ensuring no threat of retaliation, especially on the grounds of ethnicity, religion, or tribe. Foreign actors must also refrain from carrying out widespread military operations or bombardments that will result in further displacement and civilian harm.

Refugees International calls on donors, including Türkiye, the U.S. government, the European Union, and other UN Member States to:

Scale Up a Syrian-Led Humanitarian Response

Donors should scale a Syrian-led humanitarian response. Donor countries should surge funding for Syrian NGOs to address the overwhelming national demand for humanitarian aid and essential services. Syrian-led NGOs and frontline responders are at the forefront of the current Syria-wide response, but receive little assistance from donors. USAID and other donor agencies directly supported local organizations, including the White Helmets, to deliver emergency services and rebuild capacity following the 2023 earthquake. This model should be replicated now to rapidly enhance the capacity of vetted Syrian NGOs leading the response. Meanwhile, other funding mechanisms such as the UN Syria Cross-border Humanitarian Fund, the Syria Humanitarian Fund, the Early Recovery and Resilience Fund, and the Aid Fund for Northern Syria should also scale support to local NGOs to meet urgent needs, including providing services, food, fuel, and medical care.

Ensure the Right to Safe, Voluntary, Informed, and Dignified Return for Refugees

All actors in Syria and in neighboring host countries must respect and ensure Syrian refugees’ right to a safe, secure, informed, and dignified return. Refugees must be allowed to make choices about repatriation voluntarily and safely, without coercion, and with access to information about conditions for returnees in their home communities. Host countries must uphold the principle of voluntary return and continue providing protection for those unable to return. Many people will choose to return rapidly, but no one should be forced to do so. Forcing people back before conditions in Syria are conducive to sustainable large-scale return will backfire and undermine the repatriation effort.

Facilitate Commercial Trade into Syria

Jordan, Iraq, and Türkiye should jumpstart commercial trade of critical items into Syria by opening the borders for trade. Neighboring countries—Jordan, Iraq, and Türkiye—must open their borders to facilitate commercial trade with Syria. After two weeks of military operations, Syria’s markets are critically depleted, leaving civilians in dire need of basic goods such as food, fuel, flour, and medicines. The country’s traditional import partners, Iran and Russia, are no longer reliable, exacerbating the crisis. While UN agencies scale up their humanitarian response and donor countries work to reform sanctions for broader aid, immediate relief is essential. Jordan, Iraq, and Türkiye are well-positioned to fill this gap. Expanding commercial trade now can provide life-saving support to Syrian civilians and stabilize the region in the near term.

Refugees International calls on UNHCR, UN agencies, and humanitarian organizations to:

Establish Large-Scale Voluntary Return Operations

UNHCR, IOM, and other humanitarian organizations should begin to outline plans for supporting a large-scale voluntary return operation, linked to conditions or benchmarks for assessing Syria’s readiness for sustainable repatriation. If Syria stabilizes, this could be the largest repatriation operation that the world has in decades – comparable in scale and complexity to the repatriation of Afghans after the Taliban’s fall in 2001. Syria remains volatile, and any humanitarian operations must reflect the evolving insecurity on the ground. With over 6 million Syrian refugees displaced abroad and more than 7 million internally displaced within the country, achieving durable returns at scale will be a gradual and protracted process that will require a major operational and financial investment. Security conditions, economic recovery, community peacebuilding, availability of public services, and reconstruction progress will all factor closely into return prospects.

Notwithstanding the complexity of mass repatriation over the coming years, thousands of refugees are spontaneously lining up at Syria’s borders to return in the coming days and weeks. UNHCR, in coordination with INGOs and Syrian-led NGOs, should begin scaling an operation to monitor and support these initial voluntary returns both inside Syria, where possible, and from neighboring Jordan, Lebanon, and Türkiye. This will require UNHCR MENA and country offices to take certain steps to scale their response: 1) Implement a region-wide survey of refugee intentions for return, 2) implement rigorous monitoring of returnees from neighboring countries, including by deploying observers at major border crossings in Jordan, Lebanon, and Türkiye to document the current return flows, 3) monitor and advise refugees on conditions in Syria, and work with other UN agencies, INGOs, and Syrian NGOs to ensure returnees are aware of the availability of services in their desired areas of return, 4) consult with major refugee-hosting countries in the Middle East and Europe to manage expectations about the likely speed and scale of repatriation to Syria.

Establish a Housing, Land, and Property (HLP) Rights Restoration Mechanism

Syria urgently needs a comprehensive mechanism to restore housing, land, and property rights for displaced populations and returnees, including the recovery of ownership documents, property records, and other personal assets left behind during the war. This should be developed collaboratively by UN agencies, Syrian NGOs and civil society, and local administrative authorities. This should provide a clear framework for transparent legal processes, equitable dispute resolution, and targeted support for vulnerable groups. It must also include provisions for alternative housing solutions and financial assistance for those who would be evicted from properties reclaimed by returnees to reduce secondary displacement and promote social cohesion.

Refugees International calls on the Biden Administration and Members of Congress to:

Implement Targeted Sanctions Waivers for Early Recovery Operations

U.S. Congress and the Biden administration should implement targeted Caesar Sanctions waivers and a new General License (GL), similar to Syria GL 23 which authorized transactions for earthquake relief, to enable early recovery operations to stabilize conditions in Syria, especially in areas where early returns will be concentrated. Preparing Syrian communities to absorb returning refugees is crucial, but this will require greater flexibility to INGOs and vetted Syrian NGOs, like the White Helmets, to conduct early recovery operations in Syria. Targeted waivers would enable humanitarian actors to address critical needs including rebuilding infrastructure, repairing homes, restoring essential services, and supporting livelihoods without fear of violating sanctions. Targeted waivers will enable recovery efforts that directly benefit civilians and contribute to long-term stability.

Refugees International calls on international justice mechanisms to:

Document Mass Atrocities and Ensure Accountability

International researchers and justice institutions should begin working with Syrian civil society on documenting mass atrocities. This is a critical moment for UN international justice mechanisms, including the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism and the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in Syria, to act decisively to access new evidence of Assad-era atrocities and the long list of missing or forcibly disappeared persons. Collaboration between justice organizations and Syrian-led NGOs is essential to document the experiences of released detainees and to investigate the fate of forcibly disappeared individuals. Interim Syrian authorities should facilitate access to prison and government records to advance accountability efforts.